I was going to be right, but events got in the way. I have started and run several companies and have traveled around the world. It suggests that while the end may be near, the 2020 call that says it is not all that near may be correct. In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. "Copper, informally known as Dr. Copper for its Ph.D. in economics, is known as a barometer of economic health because of its use in homebuilding and commercial construction.The commodity is down over 13% in the last half year.The breakdown in copper in August was "by far the most important development" and "markets were clearly too optimistic given the multiple risks in the macro backdrop," said the Seven Report's Tom Essaye.Gold prices have soared more than 20% since May when the U.S. and China escalated their tariff fight. We need to keep an eye on the data, not the predictions.Right now, the data is quite strong. "Although the initial Q2 '19 GDP was positive, it was not as positive upon dissection, and we see a growing risk that GDP will go negative by year's end. I said no, and they said yes. But high risks are not immediate risks. 2020 looks right on that estimation. When conditions do change, it will be the data—not the date—that signals that change.I have made this case before, of course. But they are even more useful if you actually look at the underlying causes, rather than the calendar itself.I am the chief investment officer and a managing principal at Commonwealth Financial Network®, a Registered Investment Adviser–broker/dealer based in Waltham, Mass., andI am the chief investment officer and a managing principal at Commonwealth Financial Network®, a Registered Investment Adviser–broker/dealer based in Waltham, Mass., and San Diego, Calif. "We repeat our message from last two months: the shipments index has gone from 'warning of a potential slowdown' to 'signaling an economic contraction,'" the July report said. I am the primary spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. I am on record as saying the downturn might well be in 2018, only to have tax reform and higher federal spending actually push growth up this year. I am the author of Crash-Test Investing, a must-read primer for Main Street investors seeking to help insulate their portfolios against a market crash. It takes time for conditions to roll over. If you’ve been reading the headlines lately, no doubt you’ve noted several prominent economists and investors calling for a recession in 2020.

Last December, analysts estimated S&P 500 earnings growth for the year would be around 7.6%, according to FactSet. We want to hear from you.Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.

To get hung up on the date is to miss the data. In my defense, I was pointing out something that could happen, rather than making a prediction. An economic slowdown is coming, and soon – that’s according, at least, to a group of U.S. CFOs who think the nation will enter a recession by the third quarter of 2020. The seven-year market cycle is a great example of imagined calendar dependency, as are the various metrics about market returns in various years of a presidency. The call, at the time it was made, made sense and will, I suspect, ultimately be proven right. This was in 2014, and they were right about the risk level. Things can change, though. And I write daily on my blog, The Independent Market Observer. Similar to government bonds, gold is known as a safe haven trade in times of economic uncertainty.The EPU Index tracks the amount of times newspaper articles use buzzwords related to economic and political uncertainty. Most of the indicators I track have lead times in the 12- to 18-month range. Obviously, I strongly disagree with this line of thinking. To get hung up on the date is to miss the data.

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